◼ Close Iowa Senate Race Could Come Down To How Women Vote - NPR
◼ Republicans Are Surging in the Prediction Markets - New York Times
My fellow election-watchers at The Upshot are tuned in to the polls. As new survey numbers are released, the Upshot team eagerly feeds them into our election forecasting algorithm, which we’ve affectionately named Leo, and it crunches the numbers to figure out the odds for each side.
Based on the latest data, Leo gives the Republicans a 64 percent chance to win control of the Senate. That is, while the odds slightly favor the Republicans, Leo still thinks the Democrats still have a pretty healthy chance of winning. Other models that aggregate the state-specific polling are in general agreement with Leo.
By contrast, tune in to prediction markets and you’ll see the great untold political story of this week: The odds on a Republican victory have shifted upward sharply, and it’s now extremely likely they’ll win control of the Senate.