Thursday, October 23, 2014

Why the House will stay Republican

You probably haven’t read much commentary about this year’s elections to the House of Representatives. There's a good reason for that: The majority in the Senate is up for grabs, but it’s clear to everyone who follows these things that Republicans will continue to control the House. But there are lessons to be learned from this year’s House races, some of them relevant beyond this election cycle. - Michael Barone/Washington Examiner @michaelbarone

The House math is fairly simple. Republicans won 234 House seats in 2012 and Democrats 201. There are three vacant seats now, but neither party has gained a seat in a special election or by a party switch.

Put that together with the fact that we’ve become a straight-ticket voting nation now, no matter how many voters swear they’re Independents....

Half a century ago, many political scientists wanted America to have one clearly liberal and one clearly conservative party. Most probably thought the liberal side would usually win.

Well, their prayers have been answered. We now have two ideologically distinct political parties. The liberal party seems to have an edge, though not an overwhelming one, in presidential elections. But the conservative party, to the dismay of many political scientists, has an edge, though again not overwhelmingly, in elections to the House of Representatives.

That advantage may not prevail through the whole 10-year redistricting cycle. But it will this year.