Gallup state numbers predict huge Obama loss

◼ Gallup released their annual state-by-state presidential approval numbers yesterday, and the results should have 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue very worried. - Conn Carroll/Washington Examiner

◼ And Rasmussen: The number of Republicans in the country inched up half a percentage point in January, while the number of Democrats dipped to the lowest level ever recorded by Rasmussen Reports.

OBAMA’S NOBEL PEACE PRIZE WIN LEADS TO FORMAL INVESTIGATION OF AWARD

◼ The investigation comes after persistent complaints by a Norwegian peace researcher that the original purpose of the prize was to diminish the role of military power in international relations. - The Blaze

If the Stockholm County Administrative Board, which supervises foundations in Sweden’s capital, finds that prize founder Alfred Nobel’s will is not being honored, it has the authority to suspend award decisions going back three years – though that would be unlikely and unprecedented, said Mikael Wiman, a legal expert working for the county.

Fundraising totals for hot California legislative contests

◼ Tuesday was the deadline for state candidates to file their year-end campaign finance reports, which cover cash raised and spent through Dec. 31, 2011. - Sacramento Bee

Stay tuned for a look at the money flowing in top congressional races in tomorrow's Bee.

Internet porn and creepy videos are little match for virginity tests, stoning women and beheading Jews — all for the fun of it.

◼ ‘Islamist Firster’ president not what he claimed - Charles Hurt/Washington Times

...In both foreign and domestic matters, Mr. Obama had unique credibility to change things as few presidents ever had.

Despite his background as a liberal street organizer, he campaigned on tax cuts and personal responsibility and preached that the government simply cannot be the answer to every problem. Republicans would have no choice but to go along with an agenda to shrink the tax burden and get the federal government out of our everyday lives.

Instead, Mr. Obama has devoted his administration to raising taxes, adding to the byzantine structure of the federal government, and has created a whole new massive bureaucracy he claims really will cure our every little boo-boo.

As for the rest of the world, Mr. Obama promised to devote himself to healing the grave injustices and halting the atrocities that have afflicted the world since the rise of radical, violent jihadism. With his Muslim roots, Mr. Obama was positioned better than any leader on the global stage to speak with authority to radical Islamists and finally bring about permanent peace.

Instead, Mr. Obama chose to unilaterally alienate perhaps our most strategically important ally in the world and do all he can to cozy up to the very people who are dedicated to destroying not only Israel, but America as well.

Leading Democrats have been in the news lately sliming Americans who stick up for Israel as being “Israel Firsters.” Well, Mr. Obama has become an “Islamist Firster.”...

Clearly, Newt Gingrich has his work cut out for him. The road from primary headquarters in Orlando Jan. 31 to the Republican National Convention in Tampa this summer can be hiked -- but few will argue that journey ahead for Newt Gingrich is rocky and uncertain.

◼ What Gingrich must do to go 'all the way to Tampa' - John Gizzi/Human Events

Twelve Ways Obama Could Lose

◼ (I)f ever there was a time to avoid overconfidence, Democrats, this is it. - PJM

(A)nyone who says this election is in the bag is crazy. How could President Obama lose? Let us count the ways. (at the link)

Why Romney won -- Why Gingrich lost

◼ Coming off a decisive loss to Newt Gingrich in South Carolina, Mitt Romney needed to do three things to win the Florida primary: 1) attack Gingrich with a level of ferocity not yet seen in the already-contentious Republican presidential campaign; 2) raise the level of his performance in debate; and 3) improve his on-the-stump message to give voters more substance and fewer platitudes. - Byron York/Washington Examiner

For his part, Gingrich had two must-dos: 1) deal with Romney's attacks in a calmer, more seasoned way than Gingrich handled the last Romney barrage, during the campaign in Iowa; and 2) keep up the solid message he rode to victory in South Carolina.

Over the past week in Florida, Romney did nearly everything right; his ads hit hard and his debate performance was dominating, even if he improved only marginally on the stump. And Gingrich did nearly everything wrong. The result was a decisive 14-point victory for Romney, who now has two primary victories to Gingrich's one.

Waiting for Senate Democrats' Full-Year Payroll Tax Relief Plan

Obama Fundraising Advantage Disappearing

◼ With the emergence of American Crossroads, Crossroads GPS and Restore Our Future, a well-stocked Romney super PAC, the Obama fundraising juggernaut no longer looks so imposing. - Josh Kraushaar/National Journal

If Romney is the Republican nominee, he won't be overwhelmed with a wave of negative advertising, and will have the resources to fight back.... The Obama campaign ended the year with $81.8 million cash-on hand - a very strong total. But the outside Democratic groups, especially the party's newly-created super PACs, haven't given him much in the way of reinforcements. The Democratic National Committee has $12.6 million cash-on-hand to assist. But Priorities USA banked a meager $1.5 million, receiving money from just 42 individual donors in the last six months. The party's congressional super PACs -- Majority PAC and House Majority PAC -- also didn't bank much, $1.3 million and $1.17 million, respectively.

Meanwhile, the Romney campaign ended the year with $19.9 million in the bank, far less than the president's cash haul. But when you add in the outside groups, he's about at even strength. Romney's super PAC, Restore Our Future, banked $23.6 million at the end of the year, thanks to funding from venture capitalists aligned with Romney. American Crossroads, which is poised to play an outsized role in the presidential race, ended the year with $15.6 million cash-on-hand. And the RNC ended the year with more cash-on-hand than the DNC, banking $20 million. All told, that adds up to $79.1 million - and it doesn't include the cash-on-hand from Crossroads GPS, which doesn't file with the Federal Election Commission. But based on Crossroads' announced fundraising totals, it's logical to assume that they have around $15 million on-hand.

That brings the combined Obama and Democratic outside group totals to $98.3 million cash-on-hand, with the GOP groups tallying $94.1 million. Take out the Democratic groups strictly devoted to congressional activities, and it's a virtual financial tie. With labor and environmental groups poised to help Obama's re-election, Democrats still could hold a narrow edge. But it's hardly the cash advantage that would allow Team Obama to run negative advertising uncontested against Romney, without an aggressive response.

GOP governors are slashing taxes, cutting debt, reducing spending

◼ link - Bob McDonnell/Washington Examiner

In an election year, Americans may wonder what the SOTU might have included if we had a Republican president. Perhaps the best way to consider that potential is by looking to the State of the State addresses where Republican governors are in charge today, and comparing their records with those of their Democratic counterparts.

More than half of the nation's Republican governors have already delivered their State of the State addresses, and reviewing them reveals common themes. In these Republican-led states, you will find leaders who are balancing budgets, reducing taxes and making job creation their top priority. They are leading and getting results.

Many of the Republican governors who have given their State of the State speeches announced plans to ease the tax burden in order to make their states more competitive....

Democratic governors are doing just the opposite. At least six Democratic governors have proposed raising taxes this year....

Over the past two fiscal years, Republican governors have eliminated $65 billion in deficits, while the federal government borrows $5 billion a day just to stay afloat.

Obama has mastered the art of political rhetoric, but records are what matter. In Washington and state capitols, it has never been clearer that Republicans and Democrats have two distinct visions for America.

Republican governors are putting forth a positive, competing vision for America that establishes a strong and sustainable foundation for our country. It's this results-oriented conservatism that will restore America.

If the CBO estimate is correct, it would mean that the United States recorded a deficit of more than $1 trillion for every year of Obama’s first term.

◼ ANOTHER OBAMA RECORD!… 4 Straight Years of TRILLION DOLLAR DEFICITS - Jim Hoft/Gateway Pundit

Back in February 2009 Barack Obama promised to cut the $455 billion deficit in half in four years.

Instead, Barack Obama tripled the US deficit his first year in office.

The Top 150 Conservative Websites

◼ Using Alexa's traffic rankings - a tabular view of the top 150 conservatively focused news and blog sites. compiled by Doug Ross

Report: Florida primary actually IS the most negative campaign ever

◼ According to Campaign Media Analysis Group, an organization that tracks political ads in Florida, this campaign is the most negative on the books: - HotAir
◼ Rush to Newt: Stop whining about negative campaigning - HotAir

Gingrich isn’t mad that Romney and his allies are running attack ads where Gingrich and his allies aren’t; they’re mad that they have a lot more money to spend in doing so. There isn’t anything wrong with negative campaigning per se anyway, as long as it’s honest, and in this campaign, the inaccuracies and cheap shots have gone in both directions. As Rush says, if Newt’s whining about this, how can we expect him to handle what a billion-dollar campaign will lay out against him in the fall?

On Rush’s last point, though, I’ll disagree. Romney has a streak of ruthlessness behind that cool exterior that has been on display now for weeks, and I’m sure came in handy in his private-equity career, too. He’s a lot less likely to relax his bite on the jugular than John McCain was, who spent far too much time worrying how he would be perceived in the media for attacking Barack Obama.

◼ Florida: Why Gingrich Lost Big and What’s Next - Roger L Simon/PJM
◼ Romney Runs Most Negative Campaign in Record Year for Florida - Newsmax

A whopping 99 percent of the 3,276 ads paid for by the Romney campaign were deemed negative, while 100 percent of the 4,969 spots sponsored by the pro-Romney Restore Our Future PAC were considered negative.

◼ How Mitt suckered Newt - Dick Morris

In Spanish bullfights, the picadors torment the bull by sticking darts into his shoulders. Enraged, bleeding, frustrated and in pain, he lowers his head, snorts, paws the ground and charges straight at the matador, oblivious to the sword awaiting him behind the red cape. That’s about what Romney did to Gingrich in the January primaries....

No longer was he Newt the visionary, the leader, the intellect. He was a Nixonian caricature of himself, wallowing in negatives, forsaking the chance to explain himself and his ideas for the chance to jab with attacks.

Romney pulled Newt off his game. Late on the Monday night before the primary, we had a vision of what could have been. Newt went on the “The Sean Hannity Show” and laid out a sweeping plan for his first month in office. His obvious grasp of the legislative process and the potential reach of executive action was vintage Gingrich. Where had he been all campaign? Wallowing in negative campaigning, courtesy of Romney’s strategy in playing him.

◼ Apathy will be the legacy of Romney’s carpet bombing - Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion

Allen West to run for reelection in different Florida district

◼ Tea party firebrand Rep. Allen West (R-Fla.) announced Tuesday that he will switch districts and run for reelection in Florida’s new 18th district… - HotAir

According to WaPo’s analysis of the new Florida map last week, Rooney and West were the two big losers from redistricting, with each of their home bases turning roughly four points bluer. That’s the bad news; the good news is that the 18th (i.e. the 16th) District has been more reliably Republican in recent years than West’s 22nd has.

Mitt Romney's Florida Primary Victory Speech

Gingrich Florida Primary Speech, 46 states to go

Freedom and the Internet, Victorious- Congressman Tom McClintock

◼ Congressman McClintock, SOPA is a “Crippling Danger to the Internet” - Trevor Loudon

(The clip) shows the Congressman’s dedication to freedom and his perceptive understanding of the dangers creeping government infringements pose to our First Amendment liberties.

Mitt Romney wins Florida GOP primary

◼ Mitt Romney won the Florida presidential primary Tuesday, taking a long stride toward capturing the GOP nomination - LA Times

The television networks called the race for the Massachusetts governor soon after polls in the westernmost part of the state closed; by that time Romney already held a big lead in the votes already tabulated. The result ended what had become a suspenseless campaign over the last few days, as multiple opinion surveys showed Romney opening a commanding lead.

His victory handed Romney Florida's 50 delegates, the biggest cache yet, but more than that show his ability to capture support in a big, costly and diverse state that will be a major battleground in the fall contest against President Obama.

◼ MITT 48% NEWT 31% RICK 13% RON 7% - CBS
◼ Landslide... for Romney in Florida. - Althouse
◼ Polls just closed in the western panhandle of Florida, and there is no need for suspense regarding the result. It has been pretty much a universal certainty for the past week that Romney was going to win this thing pretty easily, and the only question is the final margin of victory. - The Other McCain

California will run out of cash by early March

◼ Controller: State to run out of cash in March without action - Sacramento Bee

California will run out of cash by early March if the state does not take swift action to find $3.3 billion through payment delays and borrowing, according to a letter state Controller John Chiang sent to state lawmakers today.

The announcement is surprising since lawmakers previously believed the state had enough cash to last through the fiscal year that ends in June.

But Chiang said additional cash management solutions are needed because state tax revenues are $2.6 billion less than what Gov. Jerry Brown and state lawmakers assumed in their optimistic budget last year. Meanwhile, Chiang said, the state is spending $2.6 billion more than state leaders planned on.

The Obama reelection campaign is providing headquarters staff, field organizers and volunteers the ability to take campaign donations with their mobile phones.

◼ Obama campaign rolls out Square mobile fundraising platform - Politico

Campaign personnel are being issued Square mobile credit card readers, allowing them to process donations with their iPhone or Android phones, a campaign official tells POLITICO. The rollout will happen nationwide, and involve staff at all levels.

Florida Presidential Primary Today

Here's why union membership keeps falling

◼ The strength of the union movement now moves in tandem with the size of the government. This would have surprised the early leaders of the labor movement. - James Sherk/Washington Examiner

They did not think unions belonged in government. Government unions bargain with elected representatives over how to spend taxes. They thought that made no sense. George Meany, the first president of the AFL-CIO, famously declared that "Bargaining collectively is impossible in government."

Today's union movement has a direct stake in big government, no matter how well that serves the public.

Viral Internet story says Mitt Romney helped locate missing teen daughter of Bain Capital partner

◼ Romney’s former partner credits Mitt Romney with saving his daughter’s life, saying, ‘It was the most amazing thing, and I’ll never forget this to the day I die.’ - Politifact

By all accounts, the effort by Bain employees was central to the effort to locate the girl, and Romney reportedly played a significant role in that effort. We give the account now circulating a rating of True.

The Florida Smear Campaign

◼ The Republican establishment is pulling out all the stops to try to keep Newt Gingrich from becoming the party's nominee for President of the United States -- and some are not letting the facts get in their way. - Thomas Sowell/Real Clear Politics

...Unfortunately, there are likely to be far more people who will see the smears than will have time to get the facts. But, if nothing else, there needs to be some understanding of the reckless accusations that have become part of the all-out attempt to destroy Newt Gingrich, as so many other political figures have been destroyed, by non-stop smears in the media.

Gingrich is by no means above criticism. He has been criticized in this column before, over the years, including during the current primary season, and he will probably be criticized here again.

But the poisonous practice of irresponsible smears is an issue that is bigger than Gingrich, Romney or any other candidate of either party.

There have long been reports of people who decline to be nominated for federal judicial appointments because that means going before the Senate Judiciary Committee to have lies about their past spread nationwide, and the good reputation built up over a lifetime destroyed by politicians who could not care less about the truth.

The same practices may well have something to do with the public's dissatisfaction with the current crop of candidates in this year's primaries -- and in previous years' primaries. Character assassination is just another form of voter fraud.

There is no law against it, so it is up to the voters, not only in Florida but in other states, to punish it at the ballot box -- the only place where punishment is likely to stop the practice.

All the President's Props

◼ It was less a speech than a play, lavish with props and masquerading actors tasked with immersing the audience in an alternate version of reality. - Matt Thomas/American Spectator

Obama is fully aware that his tax increase would do little to arrest the deficit and less to catalyze the economy. His purpose is to blacken the wealthy into villains and portray himself as the eminently reasonable hero; to siphon all the laws and details of politics and economics into a simple, dramatic dichotomy and cast himself on the side of good. He is, with total self-awareness, jousting with phantoms and trying to bring the rest of us along for the ride. It may make for a spectacular show, but at the end of the day, that's all it is: cheap lines and theatrics cluttering the stage floor.

OCCUPIERS ASSERT CONSTITUTIONAL RIGHT TO COMMIT CRIMES

◼ Remarkably, Occupiers claimed that they have a constitutional right to break into City Hall and destroy public property: - Powerline

The protest group issued an email criticizing police, saying “Occupy Oakland’s building occupation, an act of constitutionally protected civil disobedience was disrupted by a brutal police response today.”

Let no one forget that the Democratic Party, including Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama and many others, has endorsed the Occupy movement.