Sunday, October 21, 2012

GALLUP: R 52% 0 45%

Among likely voters - Gallup

Gallup: Romney Holds Steady +7 Lead - Mike Flynn/Breitbart

Today's tracking poll from Gallup confirms that Romney has opened a consistent, and significant, lead in the race against President Obama. After dipping a point yesterday, the poll finds Romney again leading Obama by 7 points among likely voters, 52-45. Romney even leads by 3-points among registered voters, a sample which gives Democrats an advantage. The Gallup poll has been remarkably steady since Romney surged into the lead.

Significantly, most of this poll was conducted after Tuesday's second presidential debate. Obama was more energetic in that debate, it would have been just about impossible to not be, but the performance hasn't translated into any kind of bounce in polling for Obama. While he didn't "lose" this week's debate, he certainly hasn't done anything to arrest his erosion in the polls.

The technical term for this is momentum. Romney's campaign has all the hallmarks of campaign that is surging at exactly the right, critical moment. While the Obama campaign obsesses over Big Bird, binders and word-games with Romney's name, Romney has honed a substantive message that fits the times and resonates with voters.

Obama needs something very big to save his reelection. Time is running out.