Sunday, January 8, 2012

Gallup: Obama in trouble

While the debates of last night and today focus on the Republican candidates for the president, the Democratic nominee is in trouble. - Don Surber/Daily Mail

Gallup polls in the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day showed voters were not in the holiday spirit when thinking about His Excellency.

His overall approval/disapproval numbers were 42% approval/49% disapproval.

...Elections are won in the states. Right now it looks like a bloodbath.

His approval is 52% in the East. And 40% in the South. And 40% in the West. And 40% in the Midwest.

Now Gallup did not define those regions. But Real Clear listed 8 states that look to be tossups, and only one of them can be defined as East...: Colorado (9), Florida (29), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10).

That’s 114 Electoral College votes right there (not counting New Hampshire) and added to the 191 Electoral College votes that Real Clear Politics says Republicans will take, that is 305 votes — well above the 70 needed to make Barack Obama a one-term president.

But the numbers also help Republicans in 6 of the 7 “leans Democrat” states: Iowa (6), Michigan (16), Minnesota (10), Nevada (6), New Mexico (5) and Oregon (7). That is 50 more Electoral College votes. That means a Republican could get 355 Electoral College votes if the election were held today — the most Any Republican has received in 24 years — going back to 1988 when George Herbert Walker Bush carried 40 states and received 426 Electoral College votes.