Thursday, January 29, 2015

The simple math of the upcoming 2016 election is that 10 – 20 Republicans will have a very hard time beating one Democrat.

Will A Crowded Presidential Primary Field Endanger Republicans In 2016? - Tom Del Beccaro/Forbes h/t: DW

Republicans everywhere need to start thinking about that now or possibly face Hillary Clinton in the White House in January of 2017.

...At this early stage, Hillary Clinton has a commanding lead over potential rivals. If the Democrats avoid a long, drawn out nomination fight, Hillary will be able to amass a gigantic war chest of money. She also will be able to hoard political capital as well by helping Democrats around the country and avoiding having to take hard stances – as she has refused to do in the Keystone pipeline debate.

Republicans, if they keep up their current pace, will have none of those benefits.

How many Republicans are running for president? It is really hard to know – but we know it will be a lot – perhaps as many as twenty.

Even if it was half that amount, Republicans could be headed for a repeat of 2008 and 2012 – if not worse. In 2008, seven Republicans ran for the nomination – four more tested the waters. The process left the party badly divided. John McCain, the eventual nominee, lost four of the first six primaries. Of the first 32 primaries, McCain only got above 50% twice and on Super Tuesday, the day the race was “decided,” the Republican presidential nominee garnered just 1% of the vote in West Virginia – a state he skipped for lack of resources.

Four years later, eleven Republicans ran for their party’s nomination. After a bruising primary season, featuring 22 debates, Mitt Romney emerged as the wounded nominee. Romney’s popular vote total barely exceeded McCain even though Obama got almost 4 million less votes than in 2008.

A crowded Republican field in 2016 could reproduce the same affects.