Monday, March 24, 2014

He's 99% accurate over the past two presidential elections...

Stat Guru That Accurately Predicted All 50 States in 2012 Has Good News for the GOP in 2014 - IJ Review

Nate Silver, the New York Times statistics whiz and FiveThirtyEight founder and chief editor who accurately predicted every state’s election results in the 2012 election, has some good news for the Grand Old Party: The 2014 midterm Senate election he deemed a toss-up last July now projects a slight edge for the Republicans. Why the switch? He explains that Obama’s shrinking approval ratings and the fact that Republicans have recruited quality candidates have given the party the edge they now enjoy.

Hot Air reports that Silver predicts a has a 60% chance for the GOP to take control of the upper chamber, and a 30% chance of winning it big. Of the 36 Senate races this November, he’s predicting that Republicans will pick up 6 seats, and possibly as many as 11.

Democrats downplay Nate Silver's Senate projection - Rebecca Berg/Washington Examiner

In an interview with Jon Karl on ABC's "This Week," Silver, who recently relaunched his FiveThirtyEight franchise, gave Republicans a 60-percent chance of winning a Senate majority during the 2014 midterm election cycle.

But Democrats, who have in the past lauded Silver for his analysis of polls, on Monday were skeptical of his projection this time around.