As Californians shed their political party labels, independent voters are close to outnumbering Republicans

As Californians shed their political party labels, independent voters are close to outnumbering Republicans https://t.co/5ztbsXMPaT pic.twitter.com/kbYSYeDhvI

— Los Angeles Times (@latimes) May 11, 2018

In California, independent voters are close to outnumbering Republicans. Among the youngest of newly registered voters, between the ages of 18 and 24, the GOP share is only 13%. Evidence the party's problem could worsen as there are fewer older voters. https://t.co/Zs5kkSyK5Q

— John Fund (@johnfund) May 11, 2018

Poll: Trump makes massive gains among independents, millennials, & minorities

Trump Closing the Gap: The Latest From All The Key Polls https://t.co/7K0pAyCja6

— CNN Is Hitler (@NolteNC) September 7, 2016

Poll: Trump makes massive gains among independents, millennials, & minorities via @RyJamesG https://t.co/nalNH5JOuu pic.twitter.com/gaFVg4M4gi

— Red Alert Politics (@RedAlert) September 7, 2016

41% think U.S. will be safer from terrorist attack if #Trump is elected president. 28% say same of #Clinton. https://t.co/lCrdKPm4cz

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) September 7, 2016

Tech investor Peter Thiel: Trump will move country in "new direction" https://t.co/1Bmp2BAXSn pic.twitter.com/Z6k0URnLwm

— The Hill (@thehill) September 7, 2016

VDH is starting to get hopeful. https://t.co/CDHvHXizRs

— Laura Ingraham (@IngrahamAngle) September 7, 2016

Zogby: Donald Trump is winning independents, middle class, Catholics, Protestants

43-39 https://t.co/TkQYb6V2do

— DRUDGE REPORT (@DRUDGE_REPORT) June 30, 2016

And Rasmussen Reports poll of 1,000 likely voters shows Donald Trump with 43 per cent, compared with 39 per cent for Hillary Clinton. It's the first national poll since May 22 where Trump has been in the lead. Last week the same pollsters found Clinton ahead by 5 points – marking a 9-point swing in just 7 days

Zogby: Donald Trump is winning independents, middle class, Catholics, Protestants https://t.co/2dDgVvgCeX pic.twitter.com/2GuUNMIxSJ

— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) June 30, 2016

Republican voter registration continues to erode in California

◼ Republicans’ voter registration ranks continue to slip, with no-party preference voters now outnumbering Republicans in 13 counties and more than a third of the state’s cities, state numbers released this week show. - Jim Miller/Sacramento Bee

Since last fall, independent voters have overtaken Republicans in Humboldt County and in Burbank, Dublin and several other cities. No-party preference voters outnumber GOP registrants in 172 cities, according to Monday’s report from the Secretary of State’s Office.

Independent voters outnumber Democrats in 14 cities, but not in any county, the records show.

As of Feb. 20, Republicans made up 27.98 percent of the electorate, down a percentage point since February 2013. Republicans are the dominant party affiliation in 31 counties and 167 cities, including Bakersfield, Santa Clarita and Huntington Beach.... KEEP READING

In U.S., New Record 43% Are Political Independents

◼ In terms of national identification with the two major parties, Democrats continued to hold a modest edge over Republicans, 30% to 26%. - Gallup

◼ New Poll: How Many Americans Are Conservative, Liberal? - Daily Signal

Conservatives maintained their stronghold on America’s political leanings this past year, outnumbering those who identify as liberals and moderates in 2014.

Conservatives have been the largest ideological group in the United States since 2009, but the 38 percent who identify as such remained the same as last year’s Gallup poll findings....

Independents hit a record high of 43 percent, contributing to the shrink in the number who identify as Democrat or Republican.

Democrats were hit the hardest by the increase in independents, falling from 36 percent to 30 percent. Republicans dropped by two points, down from 2008’s 28 percent to 26 percent.

In the beginning of 2014, Democrats edged out Republicans by five points with 46 percent identifying as such versus the 41 percent identifying as Republican.

By the end of year this gap had flipped, likely in response to the Republican midterm election wave. Democrats trailed Republicans by one point from October through December.

Obama's approval has plummeted 13 points among California women, 16 points each among Latinos and independents and a whopping 18 points among union households.

◼ Oh-oh, even California's turning on Obama - Andrew Malcolm/IBD

As everyone knows, California is the la-de-dah, laid-back land of liberalism that's been Barack Obama's political ATM for six years. Hollywood stars have loved him, fronted multi-multi-million-dollar fundraisers for him.

The most populous state (home to 12 of every 100 Americans) has a Democrat governor again, two female Democrat senators and a Democrat super-majority in the state legislature that has yet to stumble upon a problem it didn't want government making worse at great cost....

And, of course, Obama easily won the state's 55 electoral votes twice, with 61% in 2008 and 60% last year. He was there again just last week, fundraising naturally, sucking up to movie moguls and, believe it or not, strangely bragging of his ability to racially-profile obvious immigrants walking around....

But now comes a brand-new statewide Field Poll. Guess what, dude? The Illinois guy is sliding. Bad. Especially among his traditional core supporters, such as independents, youths, women and union members.

THE LIBERTARIAN ERA?

◼ I had no idea there was an actual movement of thinking people who want to honor the principles of the Founders — liberty and limited government. It took me a long time to wake up. - John Stossel/Human Events

Now more Americans have woken up, say Matt Welch and Nick Gillespie, editors of Reason magazine.

“Poll after poll show you that Americans are much more fiscally conservative than their elected representatives,” says Welch. “A majority of Americans thinks that we should balance the budget. Seventy-five percent think that we should not raise the debt ceiling … Growing majorities — especially young people — are more socially tolerant. They think that we should legalize marijuana … they’re in favor of gay marriage.”

Gillespie argues that some of the change comes from people seeing how the private sector offers us more options that we like, while government fails.

“The 21st century has been a demonstration project of how Republicans and conservatives screw things up, under the Bush years, and now we have the Obama version — the liberal Democrat version of screwing everything up … you go to Amazon.com, you have a good experience and you get all sorts of interesting stuff. When you go to a government website, not so much.”

It changes minds, they argue, when people see this is a strong pattern, not just the result of isolated mistakes unique to Obamacare or another specific government project.

Read This If You Believe Your Candidate Lost Due to Third-Party Voters

◼ So it turns out Terry McAuliffe and Ken Cuccinelli were able to draw away enough votes to keep Robert Sarvis from winning Virginia’s governor’s race. I hope the folks who put those guys on the ballot are happy. - Scott Shackford/Reason.com

...here are some tips from a typical third-party voter to major party movers and shakers who are trying to figure out how to approach us....

We don’t like your candidate.
You need to make an actual case for your candidate.
Don’t presume to tell us what we believe.
No really, don’t pull this blue versus red crap on us.
Respect that voters determine their own political priorities.

....I have read a number of folks lamenting that voters turned against Cuccinelli on these “social issues.” The outcome of such a complaint is giving the voter the impression that you don’t care about or don’t respect their personal priorities when choosing a candidate. If that’s the case, how can you ever expect them to vote for yours?

◼ ‘F*cking clown car’: Comedian Stephen Kruiser destroys ‘GOP moderati’ in brutal rant - Twitchy (warning: strong language)

◼ Establishment GOP vs Grassroots: Civil War or Growing Pains? - Stephen Kruiser/Freedom Works

...I will concede that, yes, the establishment dinosaurs do have a knack for winning elections. However, the gaps in between those victories tend not to be filled with much to crow about unless you're a fan of things like the Department of Homeland Security, Medicare expansion or being part of a team that's only won the popular vote in a presidential election once in twenty five years.

A school of thought is emerging amongst us extremists that it might be rather refreshing if they applied some of that ability to battle and prevail over Democrats in elections to the legislative process.

So a schism is erupting that sees one side yelling, "Hey, we win elections and stuff!" and the other side responding, "Yeah, but you're kind of hosing us once you do!" ...

Reuters poll shows Obama at a 39% overall approval rating

◼ Recent polls have shown a rapid decline in Barack Obama’s standing with the American public, but the new Reuters/Ipsos poll is the most dramatic - HotAir

First, let’s take a look at the breakdowns on Obama’s performance. Democrats approve overall 74/22, but only 35% strongly approve, which is an interesting figure among his own party As one might expect, Republicans highly disapprove at 12/88. The score among independents is what’s killing Obama at the moment — a 23/69, which is going to be a huge problem for vulnerable Democrats in next year’s midterms if Obama can’t right the ship before then. Only 10% of independents strongly approve, as opposed to 39% who strongly disapprove. Those kind of numbers may threaten Democrats in some districts and states previously seen as safer, too.

Independents blame White House for IRS scandal

◼ A clear majority of independents, and even a plurality of Democrats, believe high-ranking IRS officials were aware of the agency’s harassment of conservatives’ political organizing, according to a new Gallup poll.

The poll’s results are risky for Obama, whose political approval rate has remained relatively high, despite the lousy economy, because of his relatively high personal ratings.

Sixty-two percent of adults disapprove of his handling of the IRS scandal, said the Gallup poll. Only 32 percent of adults approve of his reaction to the scandal.

◼ Americans Think Officials Knew About IRS Political Targeting - Majority disapproves of the way Obama has handled the matter - Gallup

Bill Whittle Makes Appeal Against Protest Votes

Romney winning independents 59%-35%...

◼ According to a new CNN poll, Romney is beating President Obama 59 percent to 35 percent among independents even when third party candidates are included. The poll has the race deadlocked at 49 percent, but the sample includes 11 percent more Democrats than Republicans, 41 percent to 30 percent, a bigger gap than recent elections have witnessed. - Paul Bedard/Washington Examiner

What's more, the poll found a slight edge for Romney when it came to those who call themselves "very enthusiastic" about voting. In that category, Romney beats Obama 42 percent to 37 percent.

"We are winning with independents and enthusiasm goes to us," said a Romney associate, who also pointed to the huge, 20,000-30,000 strong crowd that greeted Romney in Pennsylvania Sunday night as proof the Republican had regained momentum.

"If it's tied overall and we are crushing with independents and have enthusiasm on our side, and we get 30,000 to show up in Pennsylvania," a GOP advisor said, the election should turn to Romney.

DRUDGE HEADLINES:

ABCWASHPOST: O 49% R 48%...
GALLUP SWING: O 48% R 48%...
RASMUSSEN: R 49% O 48%...
CNN: TIED [WITH D+11]...
Romney winning independents 59%-35%...
PEW: O 48% R 45% [WITH D+6]...
FL: R 52% O 47%...
MI: R 47% O 46%...
VA: R 50% O 48%...
OH: O 49% R 49%...

◼ Why Romney Will Win - Fred Barnes/Weekly Standard

Mitt Romney will win. The tie in the polls goes to the challenger. Here’s why:

Enthusiasm. It matters enormously, and it’s disproportionately on the Republican side, in good measure because of an intense desire to defeat President Obama....

Ground game. The Obama get-out-the-vote drive (GOTV) is not quite the powerful juggernaut it was in 2008 and the Republican effort is far better than four years ago. The Republican National Committee isn’t alone this time. Americans for Prosperity and a coalition of a dozen conservative groups—from the National Rifle Association to the Republican Jewish Coalition—have put together a massive GOTV effort focused on swing voters in key states. They’ve averaged 1.8 million phone calls per day in recent days.

Undecideds. Undecided voters are thought to vote disproportionately for the challenger over a sitting president. In truth, there’s no empirical evidence for this widely acknowledged tendency. But to the extent it exists, it helps Romney. Goeas, for one, figures most still undecided voters simply won’t vote. ... More at the link.

◼ Poll Shows Romney Winning High Water Mark for Libertarian Vote - David Kirby/CATO

◼ I'm Even More Confident That Mitt Will Win - David Limbaugh/Townhall

A Republican California? Would be first time since 1988

◼ ...Clearly, most have come to accept (including political experts) that California will easily go for President Obama. After all, in 2008, President Obama easily took the state with 61 percent of the vote, compared to John McCain, who received only 36.9 percent....

There is very little information to indicate that 2012 will be much different....unless, of course, one considers another very important statistic.

...Independents in California make up 21 percent of the total electorate.

Why is that important?

In 2008, independents gave Obama a huge boost (Breitbart.com). Obama cruised to victory over McCain with a margin of 52-44 among independents, an 8 point margin. Buying into candidate Obama's claims of a bi-partisan, transparent, work-across-the-isle era of governance, millions of independents cast their vote for the youngster, slick, smoothe talker from the state of Illinois.

In 2012? Not so much.

Nationwide now, Mitt Romney is holding a sizeable lead among independents. Romney is now leading by 16 points, 51-35! That is quite a turnaround from 2008.

Granted, that huge lead among independents may not be as big in California, but it is a clear indication that independents (who will most certainly play a HUGE role in 2012, nationwide) can just as easily play that pivotal role even in California.

So, will independents help Mitt Romney win California, which would mark the first time a Republican carries the state since 1988 (when Bush Sr. won it)?

Yes, this certainly seems outlandish, but you never know. Don't be too quick to discount those pesky independents and the growing wave of disilluionment over President Obama's inability to turn things around.

NPR: 8-point swing puts Romney in front - Independents favor Romney 51% to 39%

◼ A new National Public Radio poll, which had President Obama leading Mitt Romney 51 percent to 44 percent four weeks ago, now has Mitt Romney on top, 48 percent to 47 percent, with the Republican benefiting from his debate performances. - Paul Bedard/Washington Examiner

...Romney is doing particularly well among independent voters. According to NPR, "most of the gains for Romney have come from independents, who went from favoring Romney by a few points before the debates to favoring him 51% to 39% after the debates."...

◼ Mark Halperin: Democrats now on defense in blue states - Ed Morrissey/HotAir

Just how much has this race changed since the first debate in October? At the time, Democrats thought they had a pretty good glide path to a narrower win in the Electoral College than in 2008, but a win nonetheless. Almost four weeks later, the Obama campaign is having to buy air time in states previously considered safe, such as Pennsylvania and Minnesota, the only state that never voted for Ronald Reagan in the EC. Mark Halperin tells Morning Joe that while one cannot claim to know how this race will turn out, there is no doubt now that the Democrats have gone onto the defensive in states that they absolutely cannot afford to lose... if Obama has to start defending Pennsylvania, that speaks volumes about his traction in more-Republican Ohio.

◼ GALLUP: OBAMA'S EARLY VOTE ADVANTAGE COLLAPSES 22-POINTS OVER 2008 - John Nolte/Breitbart

Gallup, Rasmussen Forecast More Republican Voters In 2012 Than 2004

◼ Two pollsters, Gallup and Rasmussen Reports, are projecting Republican voters to have a slight advantage on November 6 over Democratic voters. - Mediaite

This year, Gallup finds a one point Republican advantage over Democrats, at 36 to 35 percent. They also find that self-identified independent voters will make up 29 percent of the electorate. However, when leaners are included, Republican voters will outnumber Democratic voters by 49 to 46 percent.

This finding is close to what Rasmussen Reports saw in their August/September average of party identification. Their surveys found Republicans dominating the electorate with Democrats trailing their 2004 and 2008 turnout totals. Independent voters, which most national polls show favoring Mitt Romney by wide margins but backed President Barack Obama in 2008, approximately mirror their 2008 turnout totals (the Washington Post/ABC News tracking poll on Thursday showed Romney with a 19-point advantage over Obama among independent voters).

◼ Gallup Shows an 11-Point Swing in Party Affiliation Since 2008 - Jeffrey H. Anderson/Weekly Standard

BATTLEGROUND POLL: ROMNEY UP 16 WITH INDEPENDENTS, UP 13 IN ENTHUSIASM

◼ In 2008, President Barack Obama won the independent vote over John McCain by a margin of eight points, 52-44. This morning, a new Battleground Poll has Mitt Romney massacring Obama among indies by a whopping 16 points, 51-35. - John Nolte/Breitbart

That's a 24-point swing among independents since 2008, a group that makes up anywhere from a quarter to a third of voters, and yet Battleground still has Obama in the lead 49-48…?...

The Battleground Poll also shows a 13 point enthusiasm gap in Romney's favor. Only 73% of Obama's supporters are "extremely likely" to vote, compared to 86% of Romney's supporters.

But again, don't question Battleground's 49-48% outcome. In fact, don't question anything anymore -- or the media will question you and mock you as a "truther. " This includes questioning our government about the release of counter-intuitive unemployment statistics very helpful to the president just 30 days out from the election.

Though the media hasn't yet decided it's time for a Romney Comeback Narrative, and probably never will, even if he wins -- there's no question Romney is rebounding in every national and swing state poll.

Quinnipiac Pollster Admits: ‘Probably Unlikely’ That Electorate Will Feature Massive Dem Skew

◼ With no manufactured outrage to hammer Mitt Romney at the moment, liberal journalists are now eagerly touting a series of polls which appear to show President Obama pulling away from the GOP nominee in several key states. - Matthew Sheffield/Newsbusters

Unfortunately, these polls are relying on sample sizes which are skewed tremendously leftward with far more Democrats than Republicans and as such, they are unlikely to be good predictors of actual Election Day turnout. Do the pollsters themselves actually believe in their own sample sizes though? At least one appears not to.

UnskewedPolls.com

◼ The skewed polls issue and why it is important - Dean Chambers/examiner.com

The difference is the weighting and/or sampling of Democrats, Republicans and independents in each survey....

The recent Pew Research Poll showed Obama leading 48 percent to 43 percent based on a sample that over-sampled Democrats by 3.8 percent and under-sampled Republicans by 7.0 percent. Unskewed, this poll's data indicated Romney leading 54 percent to 44 percent....

The recent NY Times/CBS News poll showed Obama leading 49 percent to 46 percent based on a sample that over-sampled Democrats by 10.7 percent and under-sampled independents by 11.2 percent. Unskewed, this poll's data indicated Romney leading 51 percent to 44 percent....

The infamous CNN/ORC poll showed Obama leading by six percent, 52 percent to 46 percent, almost the margin by which he won in 2008. But the survey sample was doubly-skewed, over-sampling Democrats 17.1 percent and under-sampling independents 25.0 percent. Unskewed, the data from this poll would reveal a 53 percent to 45 percent Romney lead.

◼ Is the latest Washington Post/ABC poll skewed for Obama?

In this survey, the sampling is based on only 24 percent responding as Republicans, while Democrats were 33 percent, Independents were 36 and the remaining 7 percent responded otherwise. No serious observer of American politics or pollster believes that Republicans make up only 24 percent of the population. Is it precisely this under-sampling of Republicans, and proportional over-sampling of Democrats, that skews this survey.

◼ Poll Watch: Mitt Romney’s Leading in Swing States - Nice Deb

Polls show Romney soars with independent voters

◼ "If Romney can beat Obama among independents this time, he can win the election." - Susan Ferrechio/Washington Examiner

The CNN/ORC International poll of registered and likely voters released Tuesday shows likely voters favoring Obama by 52 percent to 46 percent over Romney -- evidence, pundits said, of a post-convention bump for the president.

But a figure buried in the report shows Romney leading Obama among likely independent voters, 54 percent to 40 percent....

A poll conducted two weeks ago by Democracy Corps showed Romney with a 15-point lead among independents, 53 percent to 38 percent.

Romney also appears to have an advantage over Obama when it comes to voter enthusiasm.

The CNN/ORC International poll showed Republicans leading Democrats among the most enthusiastic voters, 62 percent to 56 percent. The enthusiasm level helps determine which party will show up in greater numbers to vote.

"This Republican enthusiasm advantage has manifested itself in an unprecedented and historic grassroots effort that will have a significant impact on turnout in battleground states on Election Day," Romney campaign pollster Neil Newhouse said in a Monday memo aimed at downplaying reports of an Obama bounce.

◼ OHIO IS NECK AND NECK - William Bigelow/breitbart

Two new polls indicate that contrary to the media hype, Ohio is now a toss-up between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama. The American Research poll, conducted between September 10-12, showed Obama ahead 47% to 46%. The latest Rasmussen poll shows exactly the same numbers.

There are positive subtexts for Romney in both polls. In the American Research poll, independents favored Romney by a whopping margin, 53% to 37%. This bodes well for Romney with those who remain undecided. In the Rasmussen poll, voters said they trusted Romney on the economy more, which will ultimately prove pivotal, but the biggest edge they gave Obama was, strangely enough, on issues of national security. With the recent violence in the Middle East revealing Obama as feckless and weak, voters may be shifting in the near future in their opinions of Obama’s capabilities on foreign policy.

Ohio is up for grabs. And after the way Obama won Ohio handily in 2008, this will probably make the Nervous Nellies in the Obama White House a little Nellier.

Americans, Independents, Republicans are becoming more 'conservative'

◼ (A)ccording to a new survey done by Gallup, Americans, Independents, and Republicans are becoming more “conservative.” - Tony Lee/Human Events

The Gallup survey found that, in 2011, 40 percent of Americans “described their views as conservative, 35 percent as moderate, and 21 percent as liberal,” and it marked the “third straight year that conservatives have outnumbered moderates, after more than a decade in which moderates mainly tied or outnumbered conservatives.”

Further, Gallup found that “the percentage of Americans calling themselves ‘moderate’ has gradually diminished in the U.S. since it was 43 percent in 1992.” During that period, Americans have increasingly described their views as being more conservative than liberal.

The majority of Republicans, according to the 2011 survey, said they are “either very conservative or conservative” and the total proportion of conservatives increased by 10 percentage points between 2002 and 2012. According to Gallup, 72 percent of Republicans now say they are conservative, as opposed to 62 percent in 2002.

In addition, Gallup found that Independents have increasingly described their views as conservative. In 2008, 30 percent of Independents said they were conservative. In 2011, 35 percent said so.

Because the GOP field does not have a conservative standard bearer, the enthusiasm on the Republican side has been lacking.

◼ Two polls that signal the United States is still a center-right nation - HotAir

Firstly, ◼ Gallup yesterday released a poll that shows conservatives remain the largest ideological group in the U.S.

Secondly, ◼ Gallup today released a poll that shows Americans remain relatively unconcerned about income inequality, suggesting that most still buy into the American idea that all human beings deserve equal opportunity but not necessarily equal results.