Breaking Poll: DONALD TRUMP Leads Hillary by 5 Points in Swing State Pennsylvania

Breaking Poll: DONALD TRUMP Leads Hillary by 5 Points in Swing State Pennsylvania https://t.co/G4DckFHP6D

— Bill Mitchell (@mitchellvii) August 22, 2016

READ: Donald Trump's speech in Akron, Ohio https://t.co/IELaCMFBmQ pic.twitter.com/ZyOzX92OiX

— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) August 22, 2016

In all three swing states, Trump has at least a ten point lead over Clinton when voters are asked who is more honest and trustworthy. Trump also has a seven point lead over Clinton with voters when they are asked to say who is a stronger leader.

New Poll Is Bad News for @HillaryClinton https://t.co/m9KOYXHWT7 pic.twitter.com/NADK9pgVjH

— Free Beacon (@FreeBeacon) July 13, 2016

Shock Poll: Rubio Has HUGE Lead On Clinton In Key Swing States

Shock Poll: Rubio Has HUGE Lead On Clinton In Key Swing States http://t.co/xvngvwdBOl via @dailycaller

— Walker Ferrell (@walkerferrell) August 22, 2015

Hillary Clinton lagging against Republicans in summer target state polls http://t.co/NGk0pQcOoI

— Washington Examiner (@dcexaminer) August 22, 2015

Hillary's polling numbers wilting in swing states

Hillary Clinton's polling numbers slip in swing states: http://t.co/OpKGnVrCx6 pic.twitter.com/qnOvpYB04p

— The Hill (@thehill) April 9, 2015

◼ Paul Blooms As Clinton Wilts In Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll Finds - Quinnipiac University Poll

OLORADO: Paul 44 - Clinton 41
IOWA: Paul 43 - Clinton 42
VIRGINIA: Clinton 47 - Paul 43

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's lead is wilting against leading Republican presidential candidates in three critical swing states, Colorado, Iowa and Virginia, and she finds herself in a close race with U.S. Sen. Rand Paul of Kentucky in each state, according to a Quinnipiac University Swing State Poll released today. In head-to-head matchups, every Republican candidate effectively ties her in Colorado and almost all Republicans effectively tie her in Iowa.

Secretary Clinton has lost ground in almost every matchup in Colorado and Iowa since a February 18 Swing State Poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. The Swing State Poll focuses on key states in the presidential election.

Mittmentum Builds

◼ Michael Barone is America’s “one man decision desk,” with credibility on elections far beyond that of anyone else working the field in America today. - Hugh Hewitt/Townhall

Which is why Michael’s bold Washington Examiner column from yesterday cut through all the spin from Chicago and all the blather from MSNBC, and struck President Obama supporters in their gut.

Barone, having surveyed all the polling data from every source and all the early voting numbers from all the states, sees Mitt Romney rolling up 315 Electoral College votes, including the states of Ohio, Virginia, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Wisconsin –and Pennsylvania!

Other evidence is rolling in to back up Barone’s prediction, most especially the not-friendly-to-Romney Washington Post tracking poll which put the governor a point ahead of the president on Friday night, a post-Sandy sign of a momentum swing towards Romney.

He who surges last surges best in a presidential campaign, and it appears that Romney has indeed caught the last big wave.... Read the rest...

If Friday’s crowd in Cedar Falls is any indication, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan are going to do very well in eastern Iowa on Election Day. A raucous, standing room only crowd packed the University of Northern Iowa’s West Gym for Ryan’s visit.

◼ Congressional candidate Ben Lange summed up the situation perfectly. As the presidential race tightens in the final days of the campaign, it is becoming increasingly clear that Iowa’s six electoral votes could play a huge role in the outcome. Perhaps even the deciding factor. The direction of our country might rest in the hands of Iowans, particularly those who live east of Interstate 35. - Kevin Hall/The Iowa Republican

The crowd’s excitement boiled over. They were treated to a performance by John Ondrasik, the lead singer of popular rock band Five for Fighting. They also heard from several of Iowa’s most prominent GOP officials and candidates. However, the eastern Iowans saved their greatest enthusiasm for the headliner.

Romney/Ryan Reno!

California volunteers are mobilizing to walk precincts in the Reno area. Last weekend, the Bay Area sent volunteers who reached out to 20,000 voters on Saturday and Sunday.

Buses leave early in the morning on Saturday from locations in Pleasanton and Sacramento. The campaign will cover your lunch, dinner, and lodging at one of the finer hotels in downtown Reno. There are plenty of folks participating in these activities who are trained through the Romney campaign. It's a lot of fun!

David Pegos is thecontact for Team Nevada. Contact him at 916-425-9598.

Can't do all 4 days? Join the weekend fun!

There is also a weekend only option. Contact David and he’ll fill you in on the details.

Michael Barone’s prediction: Romney 315, Obama 223

◼ Barone: Going out on a limb: Romney beats Obama, handily - Michael Barone/Washington Examiner @michaelbarone

Fundamentals usually prevail in American elections. That's bad news for Barack Obama. True, Americans want to think well of their presidents and many think it would be bad if Americans were perceived as rejecting the first black president.

But it's also true that most voters oppose Obama's major policies and consider unsatisfactory the very sluggish economic recovery -- Friday's jobs report showed an unemployment uptick.

Also, both national and target state polls show that independents, voters who don't identify themselves as Democrats or Republicans, break for Romney....

Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.

◼ Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Ohio, oh my - Allahpundit

Exit question: Which state is the subject of this sentence in the NYT? “But there is a tangible sense — seen in Romney yard signs on the expansive lawns of homes in the well-heeled suburbs, and heard in the excited voices of Republican mothers who make phone calls to voters in their spare time — that the race is tilting toward Mr. Romney.” Answer here. And they’re not alone.



◼ Charles Krauthammer: It Will Be Very Close But Mitt Romney Will Win the Presidency - FOX

More Indicators Of A Romney Wave

◼ I wager Obama is losing a lot more Dems than polls indicate along with the lower energy on the left, so I think we will see another year like 2010 where a lot of pollster just never detected the voter outrage coming. - AJ Strata

...MO was barely won by John McCain in 2008 by one of the smallest of margins (0.1%). It probably was one of the few states not to go Obama (while VA went overboard). So why is it this year not even close and MO is now is solid GOP? The RCP poll average as of today shows Romney +11.2%! Is this not a clear sign Obama has lost his mojo from 4 years ago to go from tied to -11%?

Along these lines keep an eye on Battleground Watch for an in depth and daily analysis of two key counties in Nevada. The early voting data he is seeing is not a good sign for Obama, who is supposedly leading in the RCP average of polls in this state...

◼ Battleground Watch

Romney pressures Obama by expanding electoral map

◼ Romney expands the map - Conn Carroll/Washington Examiner @conncarroll

Battleground state presidential polls suggest a very close finish, but look at nearby states on the map, and national polling, and it becomes clear that late-deciding Americans are breaking hard for Romney.

In poll after poll of formerly safe blue states, the Republican is closing ground on Obama, far outpacing Republican totals from 2008...

◼ ...Obama campaign strategy has accordingly concentrated on holding states he carried in 2008, rather than seek new electoral ground. - Michael Barone/Washington Examiner @michaelbarone

Obama's strategists conceded Indiana early on and North Carolina more recently. Now, Florida, Virginia and Colorado seem headed to Romney, and Germano-Scandinavian America is up for grabs. Minnesota and Pennsylvania suddenly have come into play.

Team Obama gambled on reassembling his 2008 coalition despite the Republicans' strong showing in 2010. Maybe a losing bet.

◼ Romney team sees Ohio numbers moving their way - Byron York/Washington Examiner

New Projection of Election Results: Romney 52, Obama 47

◼ The bipartisan Battleground Poll, in its “vote election model,” is projecting that Mitt Romney will defeat President Obama 52 percent to 47 percent. The poll also found that Romney has an even greater advantage among middle class voters, 52 percent to 45 percent. - Fred Barnes/Weekly Standard

The projected outcome by the Battleground Poll is close to that of the Gallup Poll. Last week, Gallup said Romney leads Obama 49 percent to 46 percent in its model of the electorate’s composition on November 6.

◼ Swing State Tracking: Romney 50%, Obama 46% - Rasmussen Reports™

◼ Wow. Gallup: Romney 51% Obama 46% - Gallup

◼ In OHIO: - Rasmussen Reports™

Scott Rasmussen has noted that “Wisconsin May Be The New Ohio.”To win the election, Romney will have to win at least one of these two battleground states.

Rasmussen: Mitt +4.

◼ The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 50% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 46%. = Rasmussen

This is the fifth consecutive day that Romney has been at the 50% level of support. He has enjoyed a three- or four-point edge on each of those days.

New polling shows that the race is tied in ◼ Wisconsin, a result confirmed by the fact that the Badger State is receiving visits from Obama, Romney, Paul Ryan and Joe Biden. The importance of this state in the Electoral College battle is hard to overstate. Scott Rasmussen suggests in his weekly newspaper column that ◼ Wisconsin May Be the New Ohio this year. That’s a startling result given that the president won Wisconsin by 14 points in 2008.

Romney is up two in ◼ Florida, moving that state back into the Toss-Up column. The Rasmussen Reports ◼ Electoral College projections now show the president with 237 Electoral Votes and Romney 206. The magic number needed to win the White House is 270. Eight states with 95 Electoral College votes remain Toss-ups. In addition to Florida, the battleground states are ◼ Colorado, ◼ Iowa, ◼ Nevada, ◼ New Hampshire, ◼ linkOhio, ◼ Virginia, and ◼ linkWisconsin.
__________________
9 days to go! OPERATION SWING STATE! You can help, from your kitchen:

1. Call today from home or wherever you are using a computer and phone. To make calls for Romney, go to ◼ www.MittRomney.com and move your cursor on the Get Involved Tab and click on Call From Home (or for more detailed instructions and for suggested swing states to call, go to ◼ www.OperationSwingState.org and then click the Romney-Ryan tab). As of today, we suggest you create one or more accounts for these swing states (see our website for instructions on how to do this): Virginia, Ohio, and Florida

2. Organize or attend an easy, fun, weekly Romney-Ryan Calling Party! For free tips and materials on organizing, publicizing and conducting Romney-Ryan Calling Parties contact Susan Silver or Don Silver: Susan@OperationSwingState.org or 310.282.8440

Contact info:
Susan Silver and Don Silver
National Co-Chairs, Operation Swing State
Swing State Co-Chairs, Republican Party of Los Angeles County
www.OperationSwingState.org
Susan@OperationSwingState.org
310.282.8440, Los Angeles

Be a part of this vital nationwide winning effort! Operation Swing State is a 2012 nationwide, grassroots, unfunded, all-volunteer online phone-calling campaign to take back the White House and take back America! www.OperationSwingState.org

IN IOWA, DISAPPOINTMENT WITH OBAMA RUNS DEEP

◼ "I was fooled, I kick myself everyday," she said. "I said: 'In four years I'll get you buddy -- and I'm going to.' - AFP via Breitbart

Sweeping in front of her house in Williamsburg, Pauline McAreavy recalled how she had thought Obama would bring a politically divided country together and that electing the first African American president of the United States would be "wonderful" for this country.

"He didn't, he tore us more apart. I did feel maybe the world didn't like America, but the world hates us more now than they did before!" she said.

Over the next 12 days, we need YOUR help to get out the vote in our battleground states. There are two ways you can help us win on November 6th:

◼ Volunteer at your local victory center or GOP office (Call 442-2259, We need you!)

◼ Make phone calls from home via the SVC into key battleground states

Every phone call and door knock matters - that is why your help is needed over the next two weeks. It only takes a few minutes to make a difference.

Let's get this done!

Rick Wiley
Political Director
Republican National Committee
__________________
OPERATION SWING STATE
We need to call swing state voters NOW! HERE ARE 2 WAYS YOU CAN CALL VOTERS:

1. Call today from home or wherever you are using a computer and phone. To make calls for Romney, go to ◼ www.MittRomney.com and move your cursor on the Get Involved Tab and click on Call From Home (or for more detailed instructions and for suggested swing states to call, go to ◼ www.OperationSwingState.org and then click the Romney-Ryan tab). As of today, we suggest you create one or more accounts for these swing states (see our website for instructions on how to do this): Virginia, Ohio, and Florida

2. Organize or attend an easy, fun, weekly Romney-Ryan Calling Party! For free tips and materials on organizing, publicizing and conducting Romney-Ryan Calling Parties contact Susan Silver or Don Silver: Susan@OperationSwingState.org or 310.282.8440

Contact info:
Susan Silver and Don Silver
National Co-Chairs, Operation Swing State
Swing State Co-Chairs, Republican Party of Los Angeles County
www.OperationSwingState.org
Susan@OperationSwingState.org
310.282.8440, Los Angeles

Be a part of this vital nationwide winning effort! Operation Swing State is a 2012 nationwide, grassroots, unfunded, all-volunteer online phone-calling campaign to take back the White House and take back America! www.OperationSwingState.org
__________________
SUPER EASY CALLING FOR MITT ROMNEY - CALL FROM HOME!

◼ Click here to learn how you can get involved!
To learn more about Call From Home:
◼ Click here to view the instructional video or
◼ Click here to view step-by-step written instructions.
__________________
Mitt Romney
LIKE Mitt on Facebook
◼ Humboldt Romney Volunteers

Colorado: Romney 50%, Obama 46%

◼ Mitt Romney has now reached the 50% mark for the first time in Colorado and leads President Obama by four in the critical swing state. - Rasmussen
◼ Battleground Tracking Poll: Mitt Romney takes lead - Politico
◼ ‘Preference Cascade’ - Robert Stacy McCain/American Spectator
◼ The Democrat Graveyard Whistling Choir Ignores ‘Preference Cascade’ Scenario - The Other McCain

Rasmussen has Romney up +4 over Obama in swing state tracking poll

◼ The swing states are Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin. Together they all hold 146 Electoral College votes. - The Right Scoop

While Gallup has Romney ◼ up +7 points over Obama today at 52% to 45% and Rasmussen has ◼ Romney up +2 points over Obama today at 49% to 47% in their respective national daily tracking polls, the poll I’m most excited about is the daily swing state poll out today by Rasmussen which has Romney up +4 points over Obama at 50% to 46%.

◼ Daily Swing State Tracking Poll: Romney 50%, Obama 46% - Rasmussen

◼ GALLUP: Mitt Romney Expands His Lead To An Enormous 7 Points - Business Insider

Today's results include polling from last Sunday through yesterday. That means that four days of post-debate polling are factored into the rolling average.

ROMNEY OUTSPENDING OBAMA ON AIRWAVES IN KEY BATTLEGROUND STATES

◼ Looking to increase his momentum in the battleground states, Mitt Romney is spending an estimated $13.6 million on commercials in nine crucial swing states this week, proving his campaign is different from John McCain's in 2008, which could not compete with Obama down the stretch on the airwaves in battleground states. - Tony Lee/Breitbart

Romney ◼ has taken the lead in the most recent Gallup poll of battleground states, largely because he has closed the gender gap with Obama after his dominating first debate, and his campaign is spending more than the Obama campaign on television commercials in battleground states.

According to data compiled by ◼ CNN, Romney is spending more than $3 million in Florida and Ohio and over $2 million in Virginia. He is also spending over a million dollars in Iowa and Colorado this week.

Romney's resources allow him to have the air game McCain never had in 2008 against Obama, which makes it more likely Romney's momentum will not fade in the battleground states. When the commercials outside groups -- like Americans For Prosperity and Crossroads GPS -- are buying are factored in, Romney will be more than able to match Team Obama commercial for commercial in the final month of the campaign.

◼ Report: Obama campaign turning grim on Florida, Virginia, North Carolina — and Colorado? - Allahpundit/HotAir

It’s not that Romney has insurmountable leads in FL, VA, and NC, it’s that Team O has to decide how to allocate what’s left of its campaign treasury down the stretch and there are better bets for them than those three states. Triage, in other words. Mitt’s up 4.7 points on average in North Carolina, which would be tough for O to make up, and 2.5 points in Florida, which might be doable but would be hugely expensive in terms of reserving enough ad time to make a dent. I’m a little surprised to see Virginia included — O actually leads there by eight-tenths of a point, although Romney’s (narrowly) won the last three polls, so maybe Obama’s campaign figures it’s not worth resisting that momentum in a state they don’t really need. They do kind of need Colorado, though, and that actually looks tougher than Virginia for them at the moment: Romney leads by seven-tenths of a point and has won six of the nine polls taken since the first debate. If I had to guess, I’d bet they’re looking at Virginia and Colorado now as an either/or situation; if Romney’s lead opens a bit in one rather than the other, that one will be written off and an investment made in the closer state.

◼ The Four Ls and Four States: What's Next in the Obama-Romney Duel - Major Garrett/National Journal

What also became clear after the dust began to settle from the rumble on Long Island was the electoral map has narrowed and Obama’s team, while conceding nothing publicly, is circling the wagons around Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada. Plouffe said that Obama remains strong in all four states, but he would not discuss the specifics of internal polling or voter-contact analytics, saying only that Obama has “significant leads” in all four places.

It is uncharacteristic of Team Obama to concede any terrain, but Plouffe offered no such assurances about Obama’s position in North Carolina, Virginia, or Florida. Romney advisers have seen big gains in all three states and now consider wins likely, although not guaranteed, in all three. They are similarly upbeat about prospects in Colorado but not confident enough to predict victory. That Plouffe left Colorado off his list of states where Obama’s leading and can withstand a Romney surge might be telling…

Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) –which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede–and Romney’s total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes.

And then:

Poll: Romney Near Landslide In Rural Swing Counties...

◼ The random cellphone and land line poll of 600 likely rural voters in nine battleground states Oct. 9-11 has Romney at 59 percent among the survey's respondents. Obama's support is now down to 37 percent among rural battleground voters, a plunge of 10 points from the actual rural vote in those states four years ago. - NPR

"Mitt Romney really needs to be at 60 percent or above in [rural] areas to offset some of those [urban and suburban] margins," Judy adds. The new survey shows "he has surged into a huge lead, and I think it is fair to say that his increased lead among rural voters is what is helping him in these swing states overall."

The nine battleground states of Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin have a collective rural population of 13.6 million, according to the Census Bureau.

"It's a boon to Romney," says pollster Anna Greenberg of Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, the Democratic partner in the survey. "It will help him ... because, of course, he will lose urban areas by a similar margin. And the suburban areas are still pretty competitive."

◼ IN PLAY: Romney draws to within 4 in PA - quinnipiac.edu
◼ GALLUP: WOMEN TURNING AWAY - From Obama - USA Today

IN THE SWING STATES, THE POWER OF WOMEN

◼ USA Today/Gallup Swing States poll: Women push Romney into lead - Romney leads 51-46% in swing states: - USA Today

A new USA TODAY/Gallup Poll of the Swing States shows Mitt Romney with a lead among likely voters as he strengthens his standing with women in the nation's top battlegrounds.

Mitt Romney leads President Obama by five percentage points among likely voters in the nation's top battlegrounds, a USA TODAY/Gallup Poll finds, and he has growing enthusiasm among women to thank.

As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, the survey of voters in 12 crucial swing states finds female voters much more engaged in the election and increasingly concerned about the deficit and debt issues that favor Romney. The Republican nominee now ties the president among women who are likely voters, 48%-48%, while he leads by 12 points among men.

The battle for women, which was apparent in the speakers spotlighted at both political conventions this summer, is likely to help define messages the candidates deliver at the presidential debate Tuesday night and in the TV ads they air during the final 21 days of the campaign. As a group, women tend to start paying attention to election contests later and remain more open to persuasion by the candidates and their ads.

That makes women, especially blue-collar "waitress moms" whose families have been hard-hit by the nation's economic woes, the quintessential swing voters in 2012's close race.

"In every poll, we've seen a major surge among women in favorability for Romney" since his strong performance in the first debate, veteran Democratic pollster Celinda Lake says. "Women went into the debate actively disliking Romney, and they came out thinking he might understand their lives and might be able to get something done for them."

Mittmentum

Poll aggregator changes 5 states from 'leans Obama' to 'toss up'...

◼ Mitt Romney now holds a narrow advantage over Barack Obama in the race for the White House -- 46 percent to 45 percent, if the election were held today, according to a Fox News national poll of likely voters released Wednesday. - FOX
◼ Discussion at Lucianne
◼ Poll: Romney edges Obama in Colo, narrows gap in Wisc... - CBS News via Lucianne
◼ CBS 5 Poll: Romney Gains 8 Points On Faltering Obama In California - CBS San Francisco
◼ Poll aggregator changes 5 states from 'leans Obama' to 'toss up'... - Real Clear Politics
WI, MI, NH, PA, OH...
_______________
We need to call swing state voters NOW! HERE ARE 2 WAYS YOU CAN CALL VOTERS:

1. Call today from home or wherever you are using a computer and phone. To make calls for Romney, go to ◼ linkwww.MittRomney.com and move your cursor on the Get Involved Tab and click on Call From Home (or for more detailed instructions and for suggested swing states to call, go to ◼ www.OperationSwingState.org and then click the Romney-Ryan tab). As of today, we suggest you create one or more accounts for these swing states (see our website for instructions on how to do this): Virginia, Ohio, and Florida