Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Don't Believe the Latest Elizabeth Warren-Hillary Clinton Poll

◼ It's a lesson in how polls can artificially puff up candidates - National Journal
On Wednesday, the group Run Warren Run—which is fighting a quixotic campaign to convince Sen. Elizabeth Warren to run for president in 2016—released a much-hyped poll. "Huge Opening for Elizabeth Warren in Iowa and New Hampshire," a press release from Democracy for America, one of the groups supporting Run Warren Run, crowed.

And the results of the poll, at first blush, are shocking: The pooled results from Iowa and New Hampshire show 31 percent of respondents supporting Warren in a Democratic primary or caucus, versus just 26 percent supporting Hillary Clinton. Compare that result with those of a Bloomberg Politics poll released earlier this month, in which 56 percent of Democratic primary voters said Clinton would be their first pick, over Warren's 15 percent.

What's going on here?

Like many seemingly crazy poll results, it comes down to methodology.
◼ Shock poll: Warren leads Clinton in Iowa, N.H. - Paul Bedard/Washington Examiner
The YouGov poll of likely Democratic voters for MoveOn.org and Democracy for America also found that 79 percent want Warren and majorities support her anti-Wall Street positions.


◼ The full results are here. at MoveOn.Org

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