Monday, August 6, 2012

Wait, the U.S. economy actually lost 1.2 million jobs in July?

The U.S. economy lost 1.2 million jobs between June and July. But that’s not how it got reported. - Brad Plumer/Washington Post

When the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its jobs figures for July, it said the economy gained 163,000 jobs. So what gives?

As Jacob Goldstein of Planet Money points out, the U.S. economy had 1.2 million fewer jobs (pdf) in July than it did in June. But, according to the bureau, the economy still had 163,000 more jobs than one would’ve expected, given seasonal trends. That’s a sign of a steadily recovering labor market. So BLS reported it as a 163,000 gain in jobs.
In theory, that makes sense. But some economists and analysts now wonder if the BLS seasonal adjustments are somehow off a bit.